A Lump Sum investment in STI ETF near the top of the Great Financial Crisis

In the past I wrote two posts sharing about a friend who starts dollar cost averaging 2 months before the great financial crisis.

You can read about them here:

As a primer, the STI ETF is like a listed unit trust that mimics what stocks are held in the Straits Times Index, an index of Singapore Blue Chips, or largest companies in Singapore. If the index go up 1%, the fund must go up 1% and vice versa. You are entitled to received dividends, as the underlying blue chip business distributes dividends so the STI ETF, at the discretion of the manager, distributes an average dividend. You pay a brokerage commission to buy it and annually there is a 0.3 to 0.4% expense for the internal cost of managing it.

The two articles studies the effects of disciplined dollar cost averaging way to build wealth with a single country based index (Singapore). The second article provides an encouraging result in that the IRR turns out to be 5%.

However, one thing that bugs me is how that original investment 2 months before the GFC would have turned out if its not a dollar cost average, but a lump sum investment.

That first purchase was carried out at $33.61 or some where when the STI index is at 3300. If you study the STI Index you will realize that the price of the index is barely above 3300 for the past 7.5 years.  The highest point reached was 3500 and momentary at 3800.

7.5 years and we are still below it.

The DCA results show that if you put in your hard earned wealth fund in the STI ETF, you would end up positive. In the case of a lump sum, you would have lost money. However the dividends distribute over the past 7.5 years makes up for the disappointment.

A Lump Sum investment in STI ETF near the top of the Great Financial Crisis aCjJWOA

A Lump Sum investment in STI ETF near the top of the Great Financial Crisis bpx8AxR

The IRR up to now is 2.82%. That’s somewhat like an insurance savings endowment’s rate of return. There are folks that tell me this is too low of a return, to justify the kind of stomach wrenching volatility they need to go though. That is fair enough. To invest with this approach you have to understand the philosophy of what is necessary, and a large part of it includes how ETF investing works, what you need to do and behavioural finance (or how your brain will make you do stupid things).

We won’t know what the future would bring, and I find there is too much things sold based on USA based indexing that preaches you will make 7% returns per annum. This is as if all country will mirror the returns of USA.

When it comes to single country index investing, things might not be so simple after all.

Still this studies does show the ability of dividends as a form of market return that should be counted as part of your return, and an important part at that.

The story is not completed yet, there are still many years to go.

Notes: Keppel Corp Q3 2014 Results

Notes: Keppel Corp Q3 2014 Results webCJ70 highres 1

This post is not meant to be an analysis but to capture some notes after listening to Keppel Corp’s third quarter results.

The results was not very good from a layman perspective but that is not the most important thing, because after all, majority of the business is project order book based. We know that you are not going to see consistent free cash flow due to 3-4 different subsidiaries and the demand for consistent working capital.

Due to that every year, Keppel’s rig building, property and infrastructure have continue to take in relatively equal orders, the earnings look predictable.

Keppel’s webcasts make it good for layman investors like myself to understand the main risks involved and what are some of the key concerns of the analyst committee. If you are interested to find out on the sector, Do listen to pass webcasts for the question and answers.

However, I felt that I can only gain a one sided view on things, and to be better we should listen to some webcasts from some other companies in similar industry.

The majority of the enquiries are very loops-sided, centred upon the oil and gas sector. This is understandable, since majority of the revenue and bottom-line is derived from the sector.

There are a few question asking the management to size up the oil and gas industry. One question from a journalist at Lianhe Zaobao asks about the falling share price, whether it is due to the recent weakness in the oil and gas industry, to which the management did not have a constructive answer to (which make sense since they are not suppose to speculate on that).

The general outlook provided by management is that the IOC’s are likely to be kicking  the can down the road, meaning that they are delaying capital expenditures  to replace very existing assets. The NOC’s on the other hand, according to the management will pick up the slack, and they have shown to be the ones actively making enquires to purchase.

The industry builds on the premise that much of the existing world fleet of rigs are on average 30 years old and that they will need replacing in the coming years. Its not whether they spend now or later but they will eventually spend. The question is that, with the competition from alternative energy sources, whether there is a change in long term trend in the oil and gas industry in the market for drilling and exploration products.

To this, the management believes that oil prices fluctuates but are optimistic that prices should move above US$80. This should see a market that continues to be supportive of Keppel’s products. At current prices, offshore oil fields are still economic to develop.

The other concern have been competition from China shipyards since the news states that China shipyards have seen them overtake Singapore based on the number of rigs being built.  Management are optimistic that majority of the rigs built by the China shipyards will end up in the China domestic market. The management did not elaborate further, but it is likely that they are inferring that most of the IOC and NOC would still prefer to work with partners that do not compete based on costs.

At various points, the management lists the following as what they deem to be differentiating and advantages

  1. They prefer a strategy that puts them close to their customers in rig development, e.g. Brazil, Caspian, Netherlands. This allows a close working relationship with customers
  2. Superior project management and risk management. They are rather cautious in this area and would not announced a contract win even as the public knows it is in development as they are constantly assessing the risks of the project and the ROI of the project. They also pride themselves in their ability to project manage well and deliver on schedule and cost. This is something that they felt is why customers would still be going to them.  It is likely that, the more delays by competitors to deliver their rigs ( which reduces the competitors as well) this puts this advantage of theirs in a better light
  3. They work with the leading IOC and NOC to collaborate and develop new cutting age solutions. Prove of this is their collaboration with ConocoPhilips to design the first ice worthy jackup rig for the artic region. They have not conceptualize the product yet, but you can see their edge in being the dependable partner working with them that will eventually lead to businesses building the products that have the best margins
  4. Good capital allocators. Hallmarks of good allocators in my opinion are folks that can find new market verticals, able to prudently assess risks and able to deploy capital and realize capital gains. In their past corporate executions at various subsidiaries, we can see that happening. You are going to be better investing in the parent then any of the spinoffs, since the spinoffs distinctly looks worse off then the parents. (K Green, K REIT are some examples that exist for them to be spun off and dumped)

There were also questions regarding the margins and that management are quick to guide the analysts not to use quarterly margins for comparisons. They will also continue to pay out 50% of their net profit like in the past as dividends if possible. To be clear, KepCorp do not have a formal dividend poikcy.