Rosenborg:Why this is not the beginning of another secular bull market
David Rosenborg doesn’t think we are in a secular bull market. This is either gonna make him more famous or gonna make him look pretty stupid:
- P/E Multiples were 8x, not 26x.
- Dividend yields were 6%, not sub-2%.
- The stock market was trading at a discount to book, not a 2x premium.
- Monetary policy was aimed at reducing money growth and inflation rates, not creating both as is the case now.
- Fiscal policy was aimed at reducing nondefense spending, not accelerating it.
- Deficits were peaking and coming down, not surging to 10%+ relative to GDP.
- Global trade barriers were being torn down; not erected.
- Deregulation back then was in; today it is all about re-regulation and government ownership.
- Union membership was on the way down; today it is back on the rise.
- The dollar was entering a Plaza Accord bull market, not a mercantilist bear market.
- Credit, household balance sheets and participation rates were expanding, not contracting.
- Tax rates, income, capital gains and dividends, were declining then; rising now.
Related posts:
- Signs that a rally might not signal a bull market
- Tim Wood: Not a bull market but short term /intermediate looks good
- Experts Corner: the bull in the bear market
- Long Term Market Analysis: Equities Toppish, Gold and Silver Bull! $GDX $SPY $SLV
- Long Term Market Analysis: Some insights into the rally intensity of this bull run
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